And the 2023 Oscar Goes To...

Wow. This marks the tenth year I have posted about my Oscar predictions, hopes, and dreams. What a decade it has been. And given that the Academy has seen fit to award the most nominations to Everything Everywhere All at Once, a movie that I declared was 2022's Best Movie in my review back in April, I am feeling optimistic about this year's ceremony. Let's dive right in!

Best Picture: Unlike last year, I am pleased with this year's nominees. Obviously I am rooting for Everything Everywhere All at Once (referred to as EEAAO from here on out), and given the momentum it has going into this Oscars ceremony, I would be very surprised if it didn't comfortably win the top prize. But this is a good crop of films overall and you should genuinely take the time to check most of them out. Obviously my other favorite movie from this list is Women Talking, which was an absolutely soul-stirring tour de force. It seems to have dropped off the radar, but I cannot urge everyone strongly enough to seek it out and contemplate its quiet grace. On the other end of the spectrum, there's The Banshees of Inisherin, which could be renamed, Men Talking. This was a violent, funny, and bizarre movie, but with that Irish setting and Martin McDonagh dialogue, you know you're going to have a poetic and melancholy good time. Then we've got Tar and Triangle of Sadness. Which are two movies that startled and delighted me in thoroughly unexpected ways. I had no idea what I was getting into with either of these films, and was thoroughly expecting to be bored by them. But wow. They both got me good. And ended with quite a bang. Which leads me to The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical film that served as a love letter to his family as well as the movies, and had a wonderful final shot that made me delightedly giggle. Then we have All Quiet on the Western Front, which is the traditional Oscar pick, a grim German World War I movie that is wrenchingly told but rehashing a lot of old ground. We also have Elvis, fulfilling our need to honor a musical biopic - this movie was fine, and of course that central performance is great (we'll get to it below), and if you love Elvis and his music, walk right up. And then finally we have the two blockbusters: Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick. I am already dreading having to watch decades of Avatar movies, so that's a pass from me, but Top Gun was a thoroughly entertaining summer movie and is worth your time if you need some mindless good fun. Though you might need to watch it on the biggest screen you can find. 

Best Director: Obviously I want this to go to the Daniels, aka Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert who are responsible for the wondrous EEAAO. I recently listened to them on Marc Maron's podcast, and they are just as fun and sincere as I wanted them to be. The other directors on this list are no slouches either. I wouldn't mind Todd Field winning for his masterful work in Tar, or Ruben Ostlund for his bonkers brilliance in helming Triangle of Sadness. Spielberg already has an Oscar so he can sit this one out, and McDonagh also technically has an Oscar, though that was for an early short film. Of course, it's a travesty that Sarah Polley has failed to be recognized for her work in Women Talking and this is yet again a category stacked only with men. But among those men, the Daniels deserve it the most and would probably give the best speech. 

Best Actress: So we're all agreed on Michelle Yeoh for EEAAO, right? She is sublime, has been steadily working for years, consistently at the peak of her craft, and she is going to walk away with this statue. Her competition is fierce, but she still manages to blow them out of the water. Cate Blanchett's magnificent turn in Tar is the strongest contender for an upset here, but she already has two Oscars so she needs to spread the wealth. Michelle Williams is wonderful and ethereal in The Fabelmans but that is a typical Oscar performance and didn't particularly move me. The same could be said for Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie, and Ana de Armas in Blonde. All these women acted their hearts out and deserve these nominations, but Michelle Yeoh deserves the award.

Best Actor: None of these men have ever been nominated before. So honestly, I would be happy for any of them to walk away with a statue. The favorites appear to be Austin Butler for Elvis, or Brendan Fraser for The Whale. Both are films I didn't particularly care for, but both performances are worthy and deserving (Butler is still talking like Elvis and can't seem to kick the accent - now that's dedication!) But I also have a soft spot for Paul Mescal and Bill Nighy, who offer up quiet but powerful performances in Aftersun and Living respectively. Colin Farrell is great in The Banshees of Inisherin and much like Fraser and Nighy, has steadily been churning out excellent work for years. This is a category that only has winners, and I wish them all the best of luck on Sunday night.

Best Supporting Actress: Both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu are nominated for their turns in EEAAO and both are equally deserving, though I would argue that Hsu's performance carries much more emotional heft in that movie. I would certainly not be upset if Angela Bassett swooped in with a win for her excellent work in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Hong Chau was good in The Whale, but overall that's not a movie I care to spend more time talking about - she has recently been doing a lot of fantastic work so I hope to see her re-nominated for more sterling achievements in the future. And Kerry Condon is wonderful in The Banshees of Inisherin, serving as the lone female perspective in this island full of Irish madmen. So, not clear on who will win here, but no outcome would be particularly upsetting.

Best Supporting Actor: This should be an absolute lock for Ke Huy Quan in EEAAO. This is an award not only for his magical performance in this film, but a reward for all his work as a child actor that has become a staple of so many people's cinematic memories. This movie singlehandedly revitalized his career and I greatly look forward to the Quanaissance, but for now, give him that Oscar. The other nominees also put in fantastic work: Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan are both weird and wonderful in The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian Tyree Henry is quiet and marvelous in Causeway, and Judd Hirsch is loud and marvelous in The Fabelmans. But none of them can hold a candle to Quan and I cannot wait for his acceptance speech. 

Best Original Screenplay: EEAAO. No contest. There is nothing I have seen in 2022 that is more "original" than that bonkers script. The closest contenders are of course Tar and Triangle of Sadness, who are incredibly worthy nominees. And The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were also great. It is certainly interesting that every single one of these movies was written or co-written by the director(s), all of whom also got Best Director nominations. Perhaps that accounts for why these films are so self-assured and masterful. You can't go wrong with any of them, but EEAAO is the one to beat.

Best Adapted Screenplay: This is a rather spectacular category and I find myself torn in many directions. Obviously my #1 pick would be Sarah Polley for Women Talking - I even read the novel and recognized what a phenomenal feat it was to adapt it in a way that made it so wonderfully cinematic. But I am also a sucker for a good murder mystery, and with Glass Onion, Rian Johnson continues to prove what a consummate writer he is, with an ability to generate laughs, gasps, and all-out mayhem. I love Kazuo Ishiguro's novels, and even though he was adapting a Kurosawa film (that was itself adapted from a Tolstoy novella), his adaptation of Living felt like watching one of his novels come to life, languidly building to an emotional crescendo that packed quite a wallop. I haven't read All Quiet on the Western Front, but have heard that Germans have been ridiculing this movie as a poor adaptation of the novel - I found some elements of the script fascinating, but am otherwise neutral on this movie. And a screenplay nomination for Top Gun: Maverick feels terribly silly. That movie was a lot of fun, but the script is not the part I was paying attention to.

That's all for the major categories. I would love for Pamela Ribon and Sara Gunnarsdottir to win Best Animated Short for the hilarious but still moving My Year of Dicks. It would be charming if Jenny Bevan won yet another Oscar for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, as that movie brought me much joy last year and made me actually care about a dress for two hours. Monika Willi ought to get an award for Best Editing for Tar - that movie was three hours long, yet I truly think it is the art of the editor to ensure you don't feel bored for a second of that runtime. And if Marcel the Shell with Shoes On could somehow win Best Animated Feature (unlikely, but a girl can dream), I would be over the moon. 

That's all folks. It has been a glorious year of cinema and the Oscars haven't done too badly in recognizing movies that truly brought some joy and emotion to audiences this year. It seems poised to be a ceremony that rewards many deserving people and I can't wait to watch all of their speeches and then rewatch all of their movies.