Best Picture: Did I mentioned The Florida Project was robbed? Anyway, despite that oversight, this category still contains some brilliant films. Unfortunately, signs are pointing to a win for either The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, neither of which I would have picked for Best Picture. If one of those two has to win, please let it be The Shape of Water as that is a cinematic spectacle with sexy man-fish action. Three Billboards is clever, but boy, oh boy, is it tone deaf and should not be celebrated in our current political climate. Phantom Thread is gorgeous but weird, Darkest Hour has a strong central performance but is hackneyed in its final moments, and The Post has clunky Oscar bait written all over it, with no actual substance. Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk are two very different movies that both manage to be emotionally resonant and get the viewer right into the shoes of its protagonists, but they did not steal my heart like Lady Bird, which is my top pick. That movie tore into my soul and reminded me of my teenage angst in the best possible way, and it is funny and charming to boot. With a terribly effective use of the Dave Matthews Band (who would have thunk it?). However, if it could tie with Get Out, that would truly be sweet, as that movie may be the most revolutionary thing in cinemas last year. I recently re-watched it with a friend and it really is the gift that keeps on giving.
Best Director: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird or Jordan Peele for Get Out. As mentioned above, if their movies could tie for Best Picture, it would be amazing, and if these two could also tie for Best Director, that would be equally grand. But if I have to pick one, I'm gonna go for the lady (#TimesUp gentlemen!), and pick Gerwig. Chances are Guillermo del Toro is actually going to walk away with the prize, and while he is a perfectly capable man, he did not make a movie that I wanted to re-watch the second it ended and recommended to everyone I met for months after.
Best Actress: It's going to be Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. McDormand was great in the movie, and will probably give a hilariously unconcerned Oscar speech, but still. Ugh. I'd rather give it to Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird (particularly if John Travolta is presenting the award and has to say "Saoirse"). Sally Hawkins was a dream in The Shape of Water and kept that movie afloat (pun intended!) while Margot Robbie spun circles around the competition (extremely labored pun intended!) in I, Tonya. So really, I wouldn't mind any lady winning this award, except for Meryl Streep for The Post. Sorry, Meryl, but even you know that nomination was a crock.
Best Actor: Daniel Kaluuya should win. That Get Out performance was nuanced and impeccable and will be talked about for years to come. But he isn't going anywhere (neither is Timothee Chalamet, though I do wish there was an honorary Oscar for Best Love Scene with a Fruit) so fine, we'll all step aside and let Gary Oldman have his award for Darkest Hour. Daniel Day-Lewis has been lauded enough and that Phantom Thread performance didn't deserve a statue. And sorry Denzel, but I couldn't be bothered to watch Roman J. Israel, Esq. When and where did this movie even come out? I am flummoxed.
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney has been sweeping the awards for her work in I, Tonya. But Laurie Metcalf is so much more deserving for her work in Lady Bird. Lesley Manville was a magnificent enigma in Phantom Thread, Octavia Spencer was trusty and wise in The Shape of Water, and Mary J. Blige was quietly powerful in Mudbound, but no one held a candle to Metcalf as far as I'm concerned.
Best Supporting Actor: Like Gary Oldman, Sam Rockwell will win because he is a respected actor who has never won an Oscar. And yet, that character in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is so odious and unforgivable that all I can do is hope he somehow splits the vote with his co-actor Woody Harrelson, and Willem Dafoe walks away with the award for his empathetic performance in The Florida Project (a movie that was robbed, did I mention that?). Richard Jenkins is a lovely, reliable actor, but he didn't particularly wow me in The Shape of Water. And I didn't bother to watch Christopher Plummer (who already has an Oscar) in All the Money in the World because frankly, who has time for that actor-swapping drama?
Best Original Screenplay: I am torn again between Get Out and Lady Bird, but for this category, Get Out gets the win for true originality. Movies like this don't come around often, and when they do, you should applaud them with all your might. So Jordan Peele, grab a statue. And if he gets defeated by Martin McDonagh, the whitest man alive who wrote Three Billboards, I will be rioting. Shout out to Kumail Nanjiani and Emily Gordon for their nomination for The Big Sick, a very sweet romcom that leaned too heavily into stereotypes of traditional brown women and families to truly win me over. I'm allowed to make fun of brown people, but you're not, goddamnit.
Best Adapted Screenplay: General consensus is that James Ivory should win for Call Me By Your Name and that's fine and dandy by me. He managed to make a movie out of a book that traffics largely in internal monologues and feelings, so job well done, here's your Oscar. Mudbound is based on a novel by a Wellesley woman (obligatory Wellesley woman shout out!), but the screenplay was a bit too sprawling for my liking. Logan was fine but nothing to write home about, and my feelings about the painful Sorkin-ness of the Molly's Game script have been made abundantly clear. I did love The Disaster Artist, but ultimately we should go for the classier choice. Plus, we don't need to validate Tommy Wiseau's opinions about his artistic prowess.
That's it for the major categories. I would love a Best Cinematography win for Rachel Morrison's work in Mudbound as she is the first woman EVER nominated in this category (it's been 90 years, Academy, WTF). But renowned cinematographer Roger Deakins is nominated for his 14th award and still hasn't won, so he will probably beat her to it. Are we noticing a theme of men winning "because they're due" while women (except Meryl Streep) are still fighting to just get a nomination? No? Just me? Moving on.
Baby Driver should get Best Film Editing because that movie is an absolute masterclass in editing. And I think I have opinions on Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, which share the exact same nominees in both categories. Dunkirk and Baby Driver had very effective use of sound so I would like them to win something, but because I have absolutely no clue what the difference is, I'm going to leave that one to the professionals. And finally, Best Costume Design to Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread. And yes, it's cheating because the entire movie is about a fashion designer, so of course the clothes will be sumptuous, but whatever. I could practically feel the satin running through my fingers.
See you on Sunday night for a long, star-studded salute to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri that will make me very angry. But hey, that's 2018 for you!
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