Best Picture: It seems like the frontrunner this year is Green Book, and that is going to make everyone very angry. I thought it was an old school crowdpleaser that failed to focus on the actual character of note, so if I was handing out statues, this would get a hard pass. Instead, I would give the Oscar to the true crowdpleaser, and the only movie I saw twice in theaters, Black Panther. But we know that ain't happening. This nomination is a nod to audiences and popularity, but popular films don't win Oscars. So then my next favourite would be, The Favourite. Starring three actress I can never get enough of, directed by a director who makes bizarre and wonderful films, telling a crazy and hilarious tale of the English monarchy, I loved this film. But this is entirely too quirky a choice for the Academy. So then we have A Star Is Born, which was both popular but arty - seems like a no-brainer for the Academy. But nope, this movie premiered in September and quickly lost all its hype after. It's a wonderful film, featuring terrific performances, but ultimately, turned out to be a flash in the pan. Does this mean Roma might have a shot? I adored this movie, the cinematography alone is worth it, and it seems like Oscars catnip. But it also is a Netflix film, and the studio bigwigs don't seem poised to reward that little upstart. They have businesses to run. So seems likely this will win Best Foreign Film as a consolation prize, but not the big one. Which leaves us with BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Vice. BlacKkKlansman is a fine film with an uneven tone, Bohemian Rhapsody is a medicore film with an incredible lead performance, and Vice is complete garbage. For those who are counting, out of the 8 nominated films, I would be fine with 4 winning the Oscar, but it's probably going to be awarded to the movie that caused the most outrage and is a faux Hollywood celebration of diversity. 2019 FTW! Also, this is reminding me how outrageous it is that Crazy Rich Asians or Eighth Grade weren't nominated for anything. Come on Academy, throw us a bone.
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron probably has this locked up for Roma, but a win for Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite would make me oh so happy. For now, I'll settle for just being happy about his nomination. Spike Lee winning for BlacKkKlansman would be perfectly acceptable, though it would largely be a win for his other work rather than this particular film. Cold War is a gorgeous movie, but it didn't get a Best Picture nomination and I would rather award its cinematography than director, Pawel Pawlikoski. And Adam McKay for Vice? Hell no.
Best Actress: Glenn Close appears to have this in the bag for her performance in The Wife, which I cannot argue with. She was the best part of that movie, and the lady deserves an award after all her years in the industry. But I would die happy if Olivia Colman somehow snuck in and won for The Favourite. It's never going to happen, but the fact that kooky British comedienne is now a serious and world-renowned Oscar nominee is the most happy-making set of circumstances ever. Similarly, a win for Melissa McCarthy's delicious performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? would be very welcome, but this seems like another performance meant to be nominated but not awarded. Yalitza Aparicio's nomination for Roma was another delightful surprise, and I wouldn't begrudge her a win at all, given that she carries that movie on her shoulders despite it being her very first acting job. And likewise, Lady Gaga blew me away in A Star Is Born, so she can win the Oscar too. Overall, fantastic job, Academy. You got this category completely right.
Best Actor: Rami Malek seems poised to win for his sweatily energetic portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. If you had told me last year that the twitchy kid from Mr. Robot would be an Oscar nominee, I would have been startled, but I guess it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. He is an excellent actor, and he completely owned this film from the first frame to the last. I love Viggo Mortensen, but that Green Book performance doesn't deserve an award, and I hated At Eternity's Gate and don't think Willem Dafoe should be winning, no matter how good a job he does playing mad Vincent Van Gogh. I loath Vice but that Christian Bale performance was quite impressive - still, have I made it clear that movie doesn't deserve to win anything? And finally, we come to Bradley Cooper. I've had a soft spot for him ever since he was Will in Alias, so I wouldn't mind seeing him grab an award for A Star Is Born, particularly since he was "snubbed" for Best Director. But overall, Malek is certainly the more deserving.
Best Supporting Actress: Please give it to Regina King for her lovely work in If Beale Street Could Talk. As mentioned, I love Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone's work in The Favourite, but unless they can somehow tie and win joint statuettes, I'm not willing to pick just one. I adore Amy Adams, but nope, not giving anything to Vice. And the Marina de Tavira performance in Roma was brilliant, so would not be upset by a win for her, but still. This is King's to lose.
Best Supporting Actor: We have two men who have already won (Mahershala Ali, who is the best part of Green Book, and Sam Rockwell who is a fab George W. Bush in...Vice, ugh). Then we have first-time nominee Adam Driver, for a very good and fun performance in BlacKkKlansman. And then we have two first-time nominees who are veteran actors. Personally, I would love to see Richard E. Grant win for Can You Ever Forgive Me? where he does some lovely work. And he would give such a grateful and endearingly British acceptance speech. But a baritone Sam Elliott speech for his work in A Star is Born wouldn't go amiss either. Plus he was the influence for Bradley Cooper's character, so he almost deserves it for two characters, not just one.
Best Original Screenplay: Maybe this is where The Favourite gets its win? Have I mentioned how much I want this movie to win something? Alternatively, would be fine with a win for Roma. But if the Oscar goes to Green Book, Vice, or First Reformed (a movie with a lot of critical praise that I simply could not wrap my head around), I shall revolt.
Best Adapted Screenplay: This should go to Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk. All the other movies nominated in this category are good films that I enjoyed, but if we're talking about awarding the skill needed to adapt something from another medium to the big screen, Beale Street had the highest degree of difficulty. Based on James Baldwin's novel, Jenkins somehow manages to take that angry and lyrical prose and transform it into something cinematic and evocative. He transforms Baldwin's words into something visceral that can grab an audience's attention, and for that, the Oscar is much deserved.
That's it for the major categories. I think Best Cinematography is a showdown between Roma and Cold War, the two black and white masterpieces that are stunning to look at. And scrolling through the list of nominees, I'll give a shout out to A Quiet Place for Best Sound Editing, because surely that is the kind of movie this award was designed for? Sandy Powell deserves her umpteenth Best Costume Design Oscar for her mesmerizing work in Mary Poppins Returns, and while I haven't seen many of the Best Animated Feature nominees, I'm in the tank for Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse, because that is an unprecedented type of animation that is going to change how these movies get made for years to come.
So onwards to Sunday night! And please send soothing messages my way if Vice wins anything. Blergh.
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